OECD Migration Outlook: US Permanent Immigration Down 14%

The United States remained the leading destination for permanent immigrants among wealthy democracies in 2025, but its intake shrank by about one-seventh, according to the OECD migration outlook for 2026.

The OECD migration outlook released Nov. 12 shows that permanent immigration to the United States fell 14 percent in 2025, even as the country kept its place as the top destination among the organization’s 38 member nations. The United States still recorded more than 1.2 million new permanent immigrants last year, AFP reported from the report, while permanent migration across the whole OECD slipped 1.6 percent to 6.1 million, the second straight annual decline.

The numbers matter now because the International Migration Outlook 2026 is the first internationally comparable scorecard of the first year of President Trump’s second term. Because the OECD standardizes national data, the US result can be set against its peers, and the American drop was large but not unique: Canada and Britain cut deeper.

United States: down 14 percent, to more than 1.2 million permanent immigrants in 2025.
Canada: down 19 percent, to 393,800.
United Kingdom: down 32 percent, to 295,800.
Spain, Italy and Portugal: up 25, 45 and 139 percent, to 460,500, 248,800 and 313,600.
OECD-wide by category: humanitarian migration down 26 percent, labor migration up 13 percent, and the 6.1 million total still about 12.5 percent above 2019.

Country and category figures are for 2025 as reported by AFP; the OECD-wide total and its comparison with 2019 come from the OECD’s own summary of the report.

What the OECD migration outlook actually counts for the US

The “permanent migration” the OECD tracks is not border crossings. For the United States, the figure rests largely on new lawful permanent residents, which means it includes people already living in the country who adjust status from H-1B, student or other temporary visas, alongside immigrants arriving on visas issued abroad. A 14 percent fall therefore reflects the pace of green card approvals and immigrant visa issuance, not only who reaches a port of entry.

The published summaries do not break the US total down by category, but the humanitarian slice is a likely contributor. The refugee admissions program was suspended by executive order on Jan. 20, 2025, and refugees normally apply for green cards after a year in the country, so a shutdown at the front of the pipeline shows up in permanent-residence counts with a lag. OECD-wide humanitarian migration fell 26 percent. The report’s asylum total of 1.1 million applications, down 22 percent, excludes the United States, AFP noted, so it cannot be used to measure US asylum trends.

Fewer arrivals, more removals

The report lands the same week DHS announced record ICE enforcement numbers. ICE carried out 483,200 deportations and more than 491,000 arrests in fiscal 2026, DHS said, surpassing the previous record of 442,640 deportations in 2025, Al Jazeera reported. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin called fiscal 2026 the highest year for ICE deportations and arrests in the agency’s history. Steven Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors lower immigration levels, told Al Jazeera the release was ambiguous about how many removals were from the interior versus people turned back at the border or airports.

The two data sets measure different things over different periods, but together they point the same way: fewer new permanent residents and more departures, which is the outcome the administration has said it is pursuing. The OECD itself framed migration as an economic question. “With the OECD working-age population set to decrease by 8pc by 2060,” reviving productivity growth is key to maintaining living standards, said Mark Pearson, the OECD’s acting director of employment, labour and social affairs, according to AFP.

Why the 2026 numbers are likely to fall further

The 2025 figure captures only part of the policy shift. Measures that took hold in 2026 include the State Department’s suspension of immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries, which a federal judge later vacated, according to PBS NewsHour. The student pipeline that feeds future employment-based green cards is also thinning, with international graduate enrollment down again this fall. Employers sponsoring workers face a separate bottleneck at the Labor Department, where PERM processing still takes about 300 days.

The likely result is that next year’s outlook, covering 2026, shows a steeper US decline unless courts or Congress reverse course. The open question is how long the gap persists. Permanent immigration responds slowly to policy in both directions, and pending litigation, including the Supreme Court’s review of the border asylum ban, will shape the humanitarian numbers that eventually feed permanent residence.

This article is for general information and is not legal advice.

Sources

Vasanth Vaidyanathan, Esq.

Administrator

Vasanth Vaidyanathan is an immigration attorney with over 20 years of experience focused exclusively on U.S. immigration and nationality law. He holds an LL.M. from California Western School of Law, San Diego and advises individuals and businesses on employment and family-based immigration matters, including H-1B, PERM, EB categories, and adjustment of status. He has also been a featured speaker at immigration seminars across the U.S. To reach Vasanth visit: https://www.vnathan.com/

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