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US visa issuance for temporary visitors, students and workers fell 23 percent in the first five months of fiscal 2026, with H-1B visas down by more than half, according to a Migration Policy Institute analysis of State Department data.
US visa issuance dropped sharply in the opening months of fiscal 2026: consular officers issued 23 percent fewer temporary visas from October 2025 through February 2026 than in the same months a year earlier, according to an analysis published Oct. 21 by the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research organization. The steepest declines hit skilled workers and students. H-1B visas fell 52 percent, student and exchange visas 29 percent, and visas for Indian nationals in both groups dropped by roughly 60 percent.
Those five months are also the most recent the State Department has made public. Its monthly issuance tables still stop at February 2026, so the record says nothing yet about the spring and summer, when most student visas are issued and most new H-1B workers travel.
Where the US visa issuance decline was steepest
The State Department issued 10.7 million temporary visas in fiscal 2025, MPI reports, down from a record of about 11 million in fiscal 2024. Visitor visas for business and tourism make up roughly three of every four, about 8.4 million in each of those years.
| Visa group | Change, Oct. 2025 to Feb. 2026 vs. a year earlier |
|---|---|
| All temporary (nonimmigrant) visas | -23% |
| Visitor (B) visas | -23% |
| Temporary worker visas | -29% |
| H-1B specialty occupation visas | -52% |
| H-2B seasonal nonfarm visas | -44% |
| Student and exchange visas (F, M, J) | -29% |
| Immigrant visas | -25% |
The national breakdown is where the story sharpens. Student and exchange visas for Indians fell 60 percent and for Chinese nationals about 37 percent, according to MPI. Temporary worker visas for Indians fell 58 percent and for Chinese nationals 30 percent, while those for Mexican and British workers each fell 11 percent. India is the largest source of temporary residents in the country: Indians made up 33 percent of the estimated 3.6 million nonimmigrants living in the United States in fiscal 2024, according to DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics estimates cited by MPI.
For scale, the State Department’s fiscal 2024 detail table shows 219,659 H-1B visas, 400,737 F-1 student visas and 322,820 J-1 exchange visitor visas issued that year.
What a visa count does and does not measure
A visa is an entry document, not a legal status. It lets a person travel to a port of entry and ask to be admitted; status is set by the I-94 record issued at the border or by a USCIS approval. Someone already in the United States in valid H-1B or F-1 status is not affected by a falling visa count unless they leave and need a new stamp to return.
That distinction matters for reading the H-1B number. Issuance counts every consular stamp, including renewals for workers who already hold status and travel home. A 52 percent drop therefore reflects two forces at once: fewer new hires coming from abroad after the $100,000 fee President Trump imposed in September 2025 on new H-1B petitions for workers outside the country, and workers already in the country who may be putting off trips abroad that would require a new stamp. The State Department data cannot separate the two.
The student figure needs similar care. October through February is the off-season for student visas; the bulk are issued from May through August for fall enrollment. A 29 percent fall in the slow months is a warning sign for universities, not yet a measure of fall 2026 enrollment. The months that would settle that question are the ones the State Department has not released.
The slump also predates much of the 2026 action catalogued in a Congressional Research Service tally of the H-1B overhaul, and it runs alongside more than 300,000 visa revocations and an immigrant visa decline recorded in the same monthly tables. Whether the spring and summer months show a deeper decline or a partial recovery is the open question, and only published data can answer it.
What to watch
- March to September 2026 tables: the State Department’s monthly issuance reports for the peak student and H-1B travel season, which have not been posted.
- India figures: whether the 60 percent drop in Indian student and exchange visas carries into the summer months, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio defends the visa changes as global rather than aimed at India.
This article is for general information and is not legal advice.
Sources
- Migration Policy Institute, Temporary Visa Holders in the United States (Oct. 21, 2026)
- State Department, Monthly Nonimmigrant Visa Issuance Statistics
- State Department, FY2024 Nonimmigrant Visa Detail Table
- State Department, Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics
- DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics, Population Estimates for Nonimmigrants Residing in the United States, FY2019 to FY2024
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